Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
